In essence yes it's obviously a better time to buy now rather than at 80cents, hindsight being a wonderful thing! Of course buying is only worthwhile if the price appreciates... Which of course is what many of the posters hope for.
I'd just double check your calculations too, by my reckoning fully dilute is 317 million shares, with 1.5 million of those from options unlikely to be in the money. Let's call it 315 million for simplicity.
At current market cap 315m x 0.4 = $126 million
At 56 cents as per your post 315 x 0.56 = $176 million
Big numbers, but not all that unusual on the ASX, many companies less far along valued more, many of them miles from revenue let alone break even.
Reasonable to assume that we're around about break even going forward, so how to value the company? Very hard to do using any accepted metric currently, but if the company can double their revenue and maintain margin in 12 months from now (and if you believe the AGM presentation verbatim that looks conservative), then the company starts to looks cheap.
As ever it's down to whether you think the company can deliver on their guidance, the reason so many of us are a little jaded is that the previous leadership/executive team failed by a wide margin. The specific reason I'm not more excited/buying more, is that the language from that AGM presentation is worryingly similar and vague to the previous missed assurances, and a deviation from the style that appeared to be winning back some confidence. With the mantra about a soft fourth quarter based on xmas slow down (again a dubious rationale), it looks like another "trust us it'll be good in two quarters" holding pattern.
In fairness the company is looking pretty good on the numbers in terms of goings concern/sustainability just not enough to drive the SP up without more progress, the reason we're in the doldrums is that the blue sky can't be seen through the fog for now.
Moving forward, page-31
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Mkt cap ! $18.88M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
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Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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1 | 899999 | 1.1¢ |
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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1.2¢ | 58997 | 1 |
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No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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1 | 899999 | 0.011 |
2 | 3058333 | 0.010 |
3 | 1422222 | 0.009 |
1 | 75000 | 0.008 |
2 | 240000 | 0.007 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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0.012 | 58997 | 1 |
0.014 | 151511 | 3 |
0.015 | 906200 | 4 |
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