from what I heard a major portion of the gap between the provided data in the PFS and the given NPV of 1.1bln$ is related to the escalation model of revenues.
The PFS has the escalation rate at an annual 4% for all products but in fact there is a differentiation as follows:
REO: 7%
other: 3%
The weighted average is (260/410*7%)+(150/410*3%)=5,536%
The difference between 4% and 5.536% works out to a difference in revenues of almost 400m$ in year 20 just to give you an impression on the impact.
After I typed those data into my EXCEL sheet the NPV (pre-tax) incl. just the hard-capex of 450m$ of 1,280m$.
Had no further information on how we get through to the post-tax NPV but I suppose that some tax credits and incentives will apply that have a bigger effect on the NPV because they apply in the first 8 years or so of the mine-life.
Just FYI I further applied a 40m$ cut in opex (over-the-fence chemicals production) and ended up with a 1,711m$ NPV (pre-tax).
Just wanna show you guys the there is a pretty good leverage in this calculation.
Apart from that management has to learn its lesson that transparency is the key for investor's confidence and I can only hope that management will work harder to provide us with the necessary information. I guess when I asked Alistair about that he has a bunch of strategic reasons to provide as little information as possible but at a certain point there is a massive conflict of interest between shareholders that like o be informed timely and properly and other stakeholders interests.
I hope this information better helps you to make your buy or sell decision in a prposed hectic trading session tomorrow/today.
Lenni
- Forums
- ASX - By Stock
- ARU
- some clarification
ARU
arafura rare earths ltd
Add to My Watchlist
0.00%
!
18.0¢

some clarification
Featured News
Add to My Watchlist
What is My Watchlist?
A personalised tool to help users track selected stocks. Delivering real-time notifications on price updates, announcements, and performance stats on each to help make informed investment decisions.
|
|||||
Last
18.0¢ |
Change
0.000(0.00%) |
Mkt cap ! $510.1M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
18.0¢ | 18.5¢ | 17.5¢ | $810.3K | 4.506M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
94 | 4241659 | 17.5¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
18.0¢ | 100000 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
92 | 4211659 | 0.175 |
178 | 6130566 | 0.170 |
49 | 2632269 | 0.165 |
65 | 1710425 | 0.160 |
26 | 1126107 | 0.155 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.180 | 100000 | 1 |
0.185 | 2543297 | 39 |
0.190 | 3112472 | 54 |
0.195 | 3227351 | 44 |
0.200 | 2560500 | 53 |
Last trade - 16.15pm 18/09/2025 (20 minute delay) ? |
Featured News
ARU (ASX) Chart |