I agree with all of that, and I think the general rally - especially in EV minerals and cryptocurrency has drawn people away too.
I also think there's also a wee bit more. There's some dis-satisfaction that is being amplified by all of the above. In the recording the other day, Henry went on a little ramble about how he doesn't know why the price is falling because they have been doing everything they said they would do (first production by end of Q3, 10's of modules by EOY etc). On that point, I have to pull him up. Whilst I appreciate that they let us know in August that the ramp was going to be gradual (a small number this year, and then an 18-month ramp), previous to the merger we had heard some very different predictions. Ross Haghighat had alluded to a pipeline of "hundreds of plants" ready to be satisfied in Q4 after the factory was to come online, and both Ross and Richard had previously predicted we could be supply constrained by the end of 2017.
Also, the $90m revenue expected this year. I wasn't at all impressed that we were told pre-merger that 83% was banked or in backlog, only for that figure to drop back to 71% or so afterwards - due to a deal they had counted, but then thought the revenue might slip, so removed. Really bad look imo. The San Quintin revenue has been slipping to, now expected 1Q18. Little word on the PDVSA Agricola one. It looks like revenue recognised in 2017 will now fall short of that expected $90m and even though it should be ALL recognised at some point (hopefully soon), this would definitely concern people too and I can understand why this - along with everything you mention - could contribute to selling.
Personally, I believe in this company in the long-term. Multi-billions MC, I feel it will be stellar from 2019 through to 2022 which I think will be the years of massive Chinese orders and MABR disruption, it will see us profitable, moving to the US boards, introducing dividends, and being a leading global name in the water industry (which will also be getting more and more attention itself) etc. I've taken the majority of my position already and will continue to buy periodically wherever it sits while it's under $1. Right now, Fluence still needs to really prove itself, and that offers good prices. With steady revenue ramp, and solid progress on orders across all lines, will come buyers. The seeds planted by the hard work of management, and through the tough times like today, will become the trees we can shelter under in our early retirements.
Chart, page-1670
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Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
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Buyers (Bids)
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1 | 7360 | 0.095 |
1 | 100000 | 0.093 |
1 | 10880 | 0.092 |
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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