They were diluting on the 1st of September (49% to 40%). Now as a result of the buyback they will be concentrating again (40% to 45%).
Idol money is the great test of management. Where debt isn't a factor there are really only 3 options for surplus cash. It should be invested in the business, provided an adequate return on investment is available. It should be used to buy back equity, if and only if the shares are undervalued. If neither of these conditions exist it should be returned to shareholders as dividends. The proportions at which this is done in any given year should vary between 0 and 100% for each option. Of course if we were a shareholder in a private company this is exactly what would happen. If it made sense to pay 100% of surplus cash as a dividend in 1 year and 0% the following because the cash was more useful for expansion, then that is exactly what would happen.
While we expect public company boards to always undertake the best value enhancing strategy at any point in time (pretty much rule no 1), this is far from what happens in the public company space. Directors tend to smooth out the capital allocation from year to year. Payout ratios for dividend's remain consistent. My belief is this is the easy path to tread and not necessarily the best path for long term value creation. Think of Telstra who pandered to their shareholders all those years at the expense of business growth.
I hope you are right about retail improving, Ive been waiting 10 years! Still opportunities exist from time to time and when you find a company in the sweet spot in an industry which is struggling it is joyous indeed.
NBL Price at posting:
$2.00 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
