Arbitration results tipping/crystal ball comp

Only 7 months to run to the nominal deadline of June 2018 so lets turn uncertainty into an activity.

I thought I would pose a tipping competition and structure it with a probability rating - put your %probability and $ in the appropriate places in bold. Add your own scenario and your probability if you think there is a different outcome.  Sum of probability must = 100%

1.  JV Status Quo.  Far unsuccessful at PE arbitration. 20%

2. SNE sale or Takeover that prematurely ends arbitration process. 68% $600M (SNE)   $1B (WPL FAR T/O)

3. FAR victory at Arbitration with cash remedy from COP. 10%  $50M

4. FAR victory at Arbitration with full  PE reset and WPL exit. 2%