GXY Trading, page-164

Here we are on the yearly.

Volume is settling down at the moment, neither the large selling days nor large buying days of the recent run and the SP is trickling down. But is this bad? I'm not worried.

What is a reasonable target price? Obviously do your own sensitivities but from the literature I'm reading the current SP is about on the higher end of BUY to the lower end of HOLD and quite a way from SELL if you consider each as buy = expect 30%+; hold = expect 15%+ and sell is less than 15%.

Is $4.00 reasonable? The longer this goes on the more confident I am getting that $4.00 may actually be cracked at some point in the near future. Will the pricing announcement do it? I would have thought that the market would not be able to contain itself if someone got the inside track on the 2018 pricing, which would lead to a jump a day or two before the announcement.

This being the case, if you believe that AU$4.00 is quite reasonable then you must therefore believe that you are just looking at an 11% gain at buying right now in short term. If it goes lower, you must just be counting the additional potential margin.

So how low will the market let it go down to?
Considering that if there was a plan to sell around $4.00 and held for less than 12 months the locked in capital gain would indicate an anticipated drop below $3.60 would need to happen at least (by my calculations) to make the venture worth it. Job done there already in the past week. Anything with a higher margin seems to be even better value.

All that considered, I'm going to hold and keep a packet spare to see if it drops below $3.50 again. Have a good weekend all.

GLTA