So one very final thing. I wanted to have a more detailed look at VW and the implications of a Co supply requirement of 20,000 tns pa. So:
1. VW need 20ktns Co pa.
2. Experts say 10-14kgs CO per car. Let us say US$12kgs
3. This equates to 1.700,00pa EV vehicles
4. Assume Average Price = US$35k
5. Total VW Sales value = US$60b pa
6. Assume VW margin = 20%
7. Annual EBITDA = US$12b
So if VW are going to make US$12b pa from EV cars each with 12kgs of Co, then the cost to VW of NOT securing a Co supply is US$12b We also have to bear in mind that the Chinese rule the roost in DRC and they will be channeling the Co to Chinese car companies. So in 2025, if VW have no/or limited EVs but the Chinese have cranked up production then VW will suffer even more because of lost market share.
Hence I suspect VW and other non Chinese EV manufacturers will have to spend BILLIONS to secure Co supply and prevent the loss of BILLIONS. It is going to be absolutely fascinating to see what happens here and I strongly suspect we are going to see some very interesting action on the ASX.
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