suddenly its only 20k bopd, page-13

I not sure here guys.

Okay the oil flow lower than expected, that can be sorted by the gas lift.

The major concerns is the water cut, 12% thats awful, why?

The company view is

"due to sand moblisation",

thats not an oil production term at all, complete bullocks.

Sand mobilizations doesn't equal water production. You only get water production when your producing zone is close to the oil water contact, eventually you get all water and no oil, horrible. I assume the horizontal well were placed well above the known oil water contact, therefore they have water coning, very bad news in my view.

Looks as AED had its run and the oil production is going to be rapidly lower as the water cut increase.

Not good news at all.