suddenly its only 20k bopd, page-19

So I got into AED after having a big investment in Hardman for several years that in the end returned me near nil profit. It was actually one of the Hardman HC guys who put me onto AED. Here was my rationale for piling lots of money into AED after my HDR adventure.

Pros for AED:
Sovereign risk - zero
Geology - well known and simple (not a spaghetti junction)
Marketing and offtake - easy - in place nearby for many oilfields
Oil quality - Sweet light Tapis crude, the best there is
Field Depth - shallow water, medium depth wells which minimise risk and cost.
Capex - Containable (mainly due to shallow depths and booked drill ship/fspo)

Overall it felt like an extremely easy play compared to Hardman.

Anyway -we've had a bad day today, but my original value calcs were based on 20k Bopd and I still came up with a price of $14 so it looks like we are still at the high end of that regardless of being a bit let down that 30k won't be immediately achieved.

I sold a few today - about 15% of my total at $10.30 as I'm keen to lock in a few profits. The rest won't be going this side of $12 without some major bad news

Run a line through the most recent lows on the chart - today's bottom of $8.90 doesn't look too bad to me.

Of course - Tomorrow may be a differnt animal all together.

Cheers
Zinc