Donaco Debacle, page-2

The win rate fluctuates given it's based on large vip turnover. The fact the VIP turnover is up significantly at Aristo is a good thing. Maybe it should have been mentioned, but reality is that the Aristo is quite a smallish part of the equation anyways.

With a restoration of the junket business at Star Vegas the volitilty will decline. More hands and tables will reduce the variance.

I think there is ample Asian gaming experience in the compamy given the history of the lim family and the founder led nature of the business.

I find it hard to call whats happening a crisis. Death of a king, variance of win rate, a major transition of management affecting junket arrangements ect.

The buy back only has a budget of a few million at the momemt due to covenants and is guided to take place over the course of 12 months. It is suprising though it hasn't provided much support.

I think if you think about the earnings that can be made in fy18 without the management payment and a win rate reversion (likely), even with a decline do you get A40m, A45m ?? They made A50m on a normalised basis in FY17 with subdued conditions at Star Vegas first half similar to this year. For different reasons obviously I know.

Think about the EPS without that managment payment even with a very soft year. If earnings decline 20% to A40m its still about 5c EPS. Thats a forward multiple of 6.7 times.

Some food for thought.