Wodinga DSO, page-17

Interesting timing considering another ASX co’s recent announcement of DSO offtake and funding agreement.

My thoughts:
Ellison does not have to make an announcement responding to a statement made on social media and then echoed around HC. Admittedly he did put out an annoucement in October responding to rumours in the investment community, in this announcement he confirmed DSO sales of 4.25mt in CY17. He would of course be obliged to put out an announcement if EBITDA guidance is going to be off by +/- 10%.

Guidance for FY18 is ‘minimum 500m’, so we should hear something if it is going to be < 450m. At a rough estimate this would occur if ~30% of DSO sales fell through.

According to the official company announcements there are five companies buying MIN’s DSO, and four of them are processing it on a ‘continuous basis’. Based on the October guidance and pricing deduced from the annual report, MIN should have sold somewhere in the realm of $600m worth of DSO this (calendar) year. So, is the thought that five companies collectively bought several hundred million dollars worth of product over 9 months, then one decided the product was no good? I suppose stranger things have happened.