I agree with you're estimate of $10 mid next year.. They are killing it at the moment & I can't see them slowing down any time soon.. I was initially worried (well not really worried) that they might eventually have a slack quarter, but now that the US is ramping up, plus with the tipsly acquisition, I think growth will continue to be strong..
- US sales are now matching Australian new sales.
- Australian revenues now include a lot of recurring revenue from sales executed last year.
- US market is 14x bigger than the Australian market (population-wise).
- Pillar 2 & eventually pillar 3
- Growth of 50% q on q = 500% per annum.
So, if we take 15m from last q = 5.6m cash profit, then multiply by 1.5x 1.5x 1.5 (for a guess at 4th q fy18 - ie. mid year 18), that gives us approx 19m cash profit (or 76m annualised).. How that translates to actual NPAT, I'm not sure, but lets say 50% of that & we get $38m. And at a PE of 40 minimum that gives a market cap of $1.52B. Market cap now is about $510m so 1520/510 x 3.55 = $10.58
Another way to look at it..
Sales of 15x 1.5x 1.5x 1.5 (for final quarter) = $50m = $200m annualised.. On a price sales ratio of 7.5 we get the same result.
Think BIG!!!!
BIG Price at posting:
$3.55 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
