I've found this simple graph very helpful. Then it's just a matter of working out where you stock is on the curve. Simple FA should tell you the rest. What's the MC? How much money are we making? Subtract one from the other and you are left with hype. Or thin air, which is worth SFA and won't last long. If you believe, wait for the drop and the negativity to set in, then buy.
I bought STB for 1oc years ago, I sold at a dollar, just to see the hype drive it to $6 or so soon after. That was almost 10 years ago. It went back to 20 or 30c as DNK. Now they are closer to production and getting back towards $1. I don't hold anymore, but a good lesson, nonetheless.
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