producers in the box seat

Iron ore talks could double the price


IRON ore doubling in price next year? Extraordinary idea, but one sector analyst (unnamed, unfortunately) told the New York oil and metals news service Platts that prices could double following 2008 contract price talks, which have begun in Tokyo.

Unlikely, but analysts' estimates have been creeping up. They started predicting a 10 per cent raise. Then, a little later, the analysts settled on a "consensus" of about 25 per cent, and now Macquarie Bank has upped the ante by predicting a 50 per cent increase.

There are signs that supply constraints are going to be a continuing headache.

It was reported at the weekend that India's exports could be down 15 per cent this year because of problems at two big iron ore ports, Mormugao and Paradip.

Brazil is diverting increasing amounts of its production to feed its fast-growing domestic steel industry. Crude steel output there for the first nine months of this year was up 10 per cent year-on-year, so it will pay to follow the local iron ore sector closely to judge which companies will ride the wave.

Producers in box seat

EXISTING producers are clearly in the box seat, provided their projects perform. Territory Resources is railing iron ore daily from Frances Creek to Darwin and the company has increased its resource to 10 million tonnes by adding in fines dumped on-site during previous mining between 1966 and 1974.

At Marillana, 100km north of Newman (and bisected by the BHP Billiton railway), Yilgarn Mining will be feeling chirpy about bringing in its first indicated resource of 43.5 million tonnes at 57.6 per cent iron ore, 45 per cent above original estimates. InterMet Resources has added another iron ore project in north Queensland to its portfolio. There are iron ore grades of 70 per cent along with lead, zinc and silver. We know of at least one broker who is keen on the Icon Resources story, with its zinc, lead, gold and tin prospects, and now the junior has an intriguing iron ore story out west. Azure Minerals had been drilling the Splinter project 120km north-east of Esperance, looking for copper-gold but the cores came back with magnetite up to widths of 50m.