No, it will be much closer than that, either due to the sounds of change, and voices of the masses. Let's go with the flow, they all cry. But let's go with the new guy, after all he sounds a lot better than that other guy.
A bit like admiring those who have it all (big house, flash car, expensive trinkets, and are all seen about town), except for one thing - they owe all of it, and own very little of it.
That's why FLASH 'N THE PAN had a monstrous hit back in the late 70s - DOWN AMONGST THE DEAD MEN.
Both the group's name, and the song were reminiscent of people (or a society) taking others for a ride.
That's the problem with this election.
The opposition is not credible.
They borrow far too much from the Coalition (witness the latest - the $500 Elders utility allowance).
They know all about Kyoto except that signing a piece of paper is merely a flashy statement without substance given that noneof the major emitters (particularly amongst the developing world) will be stuck to binding targets. And that includes Peter Garratt's preferred post 2012 Kyoto 2.
And, as for the 20 by 2020 in renewable targets, the issue there is - who will remember and who will judge them given that that is 13 years away (or more the point, in looking back, all the way back to 1994 and Paul Keating's abandonement of the L.A.W. tax cuts).
If Rudd were fair dinkum, he would come out and say exactly what harm and damage will be done to the Hunter Valley and the coal industry. He would say directly that any emitter failing to agree a binding target going forward would be hit with a tariff on goods imported into Australia.
After all, the cost of the emitters failing to control their emissions will be felt here - in terms of climate change, except that by buying their goods, we are then continuing to encourage bad behaviour.
There is very little original thought going on at the moment, and what original thought there is belongs to the Coalition.
Trouble is, that will still not get them re-ellected because Rudd has managed to master the audio-cue whilst Howard and Costello are still uncomfortable in being talking heads (just like a news reader).
Trouble is, we all believe that newsreaders are credible people, even though they are juts good at talking, or reading someone else's lines at 3 metres.
People who are seduced into this type of world will not change thir minds quickly, or at all.
That's why there is a momentum swing under way. Not because of necessity or need, but because of Ruddywood.
He is a television personality masquerading as a politican, and even though he has the intellect to scale the latter, he prefers to practice the former.
As such, the election will be very, very close, likely will go down to the wire, and likely will result in a change of Government.
As of today, for my own predictions (right, or wrong as they likely, or almost inevitably, will be), here are the seats that will go:
FROM COALITION TO LABOR - 18 seats counting both D(efinite) and M(aybe) In SA: Kingston (D) Makin (D) Sturt (M) In WA: Hasluck (D) Stirling (M) In NT: Solomon (D) In Victoria: McMillan (D) In QLD: Bonner (D) Blair (D) Moreton (D) In NSW: Macquarie (D) Eden-Monaro (D) Dobell (D) Paterson (D) Robertson (M) Wentworth (NSW) - Turnbull's seat (M) In Tasmania: Bass (D) Braddon (D)
FROM LABOR TO COALITION 2 seats - counting (D)efinite only In SA: In WA: Brand (ex-Beazley, current) (M) Swan (ex-Beazley, former) (M) Cowan (ex-Edwards) (M) In NT: Nil In Victoria: Corio (ex-ALP, turned Independent - Independent to take the seat) (D) Bendigo (M) Chisholm (M) Holt (M) In QLD: Capricornia (D) In NSW: Richmond (M) Lowe (M) Parramatta (M)
Labor needs 17 seats to govern in its own right.
Presently, there are 3 independents. However, with Corio in play, this could turn to 4, post election.
On the basis of maximum movements to Labor and minimal movements to the Coalition, post-election, the following will be the House make-up:
Former Coaliton = 87 Labor = 60 Ind = 3 Majority = 24 overall (12 seats to change hands) Labor required Majority = 30 (16 seats to change hands)
Proposed Coalition = 87-18+1 = 70 Labor = 60+18-2 = 76 Ind = 3+1 = 4 Majority to Labor = 2 (overall) - 76:74 If Labor Speaker appointed = 75:74
Labor wins the election on a knife-edge. However, if Wentworth does not fall, and if Sturt is retained, then Labor fails.
On this basis, Labor would then have 74, the Coalition + Independents would have 76, and the balance of power would be held by the Independents, 3 of whom tend to come from the conservative side, and one from the Labor side.
Factoring for this, Bob Katter becomes a maverick, resulting in extended Labor = 75, the extended Coalition = 74, and Bob Katter would have the balance of power.
This would then result in Bob Katter being elected to be Speaker, thereby technically giving Labor government on the day.
Once again, Labor by the barest of margins.
And,as you can see, I am predicting Malcolm Turnbull as the biggest casualty of the election.
And I am predicting labor by either one seat, or with the aid of the Independents.
