Short Term Trading Week Starting: 11 Dec, page-147

Hmm. I’m tending towards a reversal. In the case of ‘16/‘17 - this was mainly driven by speculation. Batteries were novel and had a bright future. But, at that stage the narrative was undeveloped. It was all potential and very little substance.

Conversely: This current rally (inc obligatory breathing period) is demand driven. And that is, importantly, demand for the actual product that they are digging out of the ground. We’ve had deal after multi-million dollar deal; we’ve seen huge amounts spent on new infrastructure; we’ve had real change at the most macro of levels (Government policy) and public opinion seems to have shifted with an (almost) universally accepted sentiment that our near future will be dominated by renewables, particularly batteries and EVs.

I’ll be watching the LIT ETF for an indication of how market sentiment might be shifting, however I won’t use that as my only decision trigger or trend gauge; there are other, undeniably clear indicators that show us where this is heading.