This does seem cheap, however I am concerned about the following:
- On average, $2.1m p.a was spent on property, plant & equipment from 2008 - 2015. In the last 3 years, they have spent $2.6m combined! Operating cash flow might come good soon but there is clearly a capex catch-up to be had of close to $4m...not withstanding the main kettle replacement they are having to pay for now which I suspect is a substantial cost. Free cash flow will be poor for a couple of years.
- $450k p.a remuneration package for non-exec directors is huge for a company of this size and complexity. A 6 person board, including 4 non-exec directors for a simple company with a mkt cap of $25m is excessive.
- $1.8m p.a for the key management team...yeesh. Most of them barely hold any shares either!
- The new CEO risk. You see this so often, new CEO comes in and cleans the deck. Writes down inventory & PPE then embarks on a nice capex spend to help with his performance related remuneration.
- Even though this is a cyclical company, I just do not think there is any material mean reversion to be had. My calculation of free cash flow over the past 10 years showed an average of $2.9m p.a. Say we expect this to be trading on 10 times FCF if/when FCF comes back to its 10 year mean, that's only a market cap of $29m. We are at $25m now.
I like these pokey little company's and I think this looks cheap but I do not think it is yet. Thoughts?
KOV Price at posting:
$2.25 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
