Hi
@Mibart, hi
@davybabyk
From my research it seems like solid state with no cobalt is *probably* a long way off. The first generation (so next ten years or so) will use current NMC/NCA/LCO (etc) cathode and anode chemistries, just with a solid electrolyte to increase density and safety. I still think we need to get Mt Thirsty up and running ASAP to maximise on the boom or miss out. But I'm betting cobalt demand will have at least a 1o year run. My hope: we get Thirsty up and running in 2 or 3 years from now, make A LOT OF HAY while the sun shines in the first few years of mining, then hope for the best from there...
Below are some comments from John Peterson (On Seeking Alpha) on this cobalt and solid state issue, and another on how cost will affect EV's. Both from this article, which is well worth a read:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/41...rmed-analysis-teslas-cobalt-supply-chain-risk
Small note: I have a slight dislike of John Peterson's Cobalt Cliff writing - he has a climate skeptic/anti EV, pro fossil fuels feel about him, and I also think he's probably overstating the cobalt problem (as a huge Tesla Bear) to the fictitious 'it can't possibly be solved, so Tesla is going bankrupt' level. However his articles are always well written and well-worth reading for their research, and for the comments that follow!
I personally think that most EVs and home storage systems, and probably all electronics will continue to use cobalt, and that the demand will be met by A: the mining industry massively up-scaling, especially Australia and Canada, and B, through many smaller and cheaper city EVs using smaller batteries, and cheaper non cobalt batteries (as are used in China) - because the whole range-anxiety thing will fade away as perceptions towards EVs change, and more and more charging stations are installed.
See below,
Solarbat
Author’s reply » (on the cobalt component of solid state batteries)
I discussed that issue with Prof Gerbrand Ceder of Berkeley a couple weeks ago and he told me that the first generations of solid state batteries will use the same cathode powder formulations as today's lithium-ion batteries. That may change with time, but time in the battery industry is far longer than time as you normally think of it.
The entire history of the battery industry shows that:
- It takes at least a decade for a new battery chemistry to progress from the Eureka! moment in a lab to the first commercial product.
2. It takes another decade for a new battery chemistry to progress from first commercial product to performance optimized product.
3. It takes yet another decade for a new battery chemistry to progress from performance optimized product to cost optimized product.
There are potential advances like solid state batteries in the pipeline, but none of them are likely to be cheap or plentiful enough for automotive while I'm still breathing.
Author’s reply » (on if cobalt price will make it's use in EV's uneconomic)
NCA batteries use about 143 grams of cobalt per kWh of battery capacity, so that's roughly $10 of cobalt cost per kWh. Even if the cobalt price triples from current levels, the impact on the cost of manufacturing a car will be pretty insignificant.
The big price inelasticity battles will come when a battery manufacturer has to stand toe to toe with an old-line industrial user of cobalt. In that competition the battery manufacturer doesn't stand a chance because GE and Rolls Royce will have their cobalt superalloys for jet engines and petrochemical producers will have their cobalt-based desulfuring, fisher tropsch and plastic production catalysts.
Likewise, when it comes down to a bidding war between an EV manufacturer that needs 100,000 wh of battery capacity per unit of production and an electronics manufacturer that needs 10 wh of battery capacity per unit of production, the electronics manufacturer will always win.
