I've read too many articles to post any on here, but I will say the following:
Nuclear power generated electricity by country-
Germany is reducing output
France is thinking about reducing output
Japan is increasing output, though slowly as utilities satisfy the stricter safety measures and local prefectures get onboard (if a plant is deemed to be safe by the NRA, then the prefecture may elect not to open it and will have government grants toward the general prefecture reduced significantly if they don't bring the reactor online within a certain timeframe). it's also important to note that Japan is relying on a huge import of energy sources, and that Asian LNG prices have recently hit higher prices for the last few years. I estimate 20-30% or reactors will be restarted within the next 2 years.
US output steady, with no signs of widespread reduction. vogtle reactors have the go ahead. Also important to note that recently, Indian point was restarted and the first week that it was brought online after maintenance, electricity prices for its grid fell significantly. Trump might be rescinding the tax subsidies related to renewables next year. However the force is strong for renewable energies but I am guessing that we are reaching peak efficiency soon while storage capacity is further improved although at a slow pace. Battery technology is lagging way behind the cost reduction of renewables. IMO it is safe to assume the nuclear industry is well protected in the US.
India output growing
Chinese output growing significantly- we all know this is happening right now. However, the pace of the output, according to BP 2017 electricity report, is well worth noting as it has now taken up most of the Japanese output that got reduced since 2011.
UK is still in good form, particularly support for England's Hinkley NPP
So we saw the dismantling of russian nuclear weaponry adding uranium to stockpiles. We also saw a wave of producers coming online as prices were moving significantly higher, but with the time lag from exploration to production, many missed that boat, BOE included, which by time was too late for most. And of course, another big factor was the Japanese shutdown of reactors. This was significant btw, as I'm sure you all know. To give you an idea, they had 1 reactor in 2012 operating out of 54... obviously not sustainable so the number of Japanese reactors will continue to grow.
If you put it all in perspective, barring some catastrophic event, uranium demand hit a trough between 2011 and 2016. We are in 2018 now and the trend IMO will start moving up for U prices.
It's also important to note that uranium has to be enriched in most cases to produce the fuel required by NPP's. To give you an idea, most plants require anywhere from 5-20% U235 content. Yellowcake usually has less than 1% u235 by part, with u238 comprising 99%+. I'm not 100% of the figures but you can assume that with every 1lb of uranium, a few more will be needed to get to the fuel NPP's use after enrichment. I think a plant requires somewhere around 27 tons of fuel per year for 1000MW. Perhaps someone with more experience can elaborate on this side?
BOE has had a 3.5 times increase of their resource since acquisition, and have made their ISL process more efficient with the use of certain ion exchange resins. Someone might want to ellaborate more on this as I am not much familiar with resins. Also, add the infrastructure already in place plus all the time value in the regulatory approvals that the project has. Is it perhaps around 50M valuation? The market seems to think so at this point. The previous capital raisings have been successful, at around current prices. This to me says that there is patient money investing. Some of that came in the last 2 months accumulating what, like 150M+ in volume? Might want to look at the monthly bars, you will notice why OBV is positive, and close to record highs. I've gotten my average to 5.4 and I'm more than happy to keep accumulating at these levels. However, high risk still remains and there could be a waiting game involved.
I am of the opinion that we are now at that crucial inflection point in the Uranium market. I think China will lift the price but I don't exactly know by how much or when. Regardless though, coupled with these recent production cuts, I very much look forward to see where prices will be heading in 2018 and beyond.
DYOR and GLTAH
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