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m0ngy

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03/01/18

10:47

Post #: 30004022
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Sp powering

Originally posted by brucesterfer ↑

These metrics do look very good indeed - AWE, SXY, COE are three of the Co's:
- AWE : Less debt, Waitasia, less political risk, takeover potential (always has had)
- SXY : Low cost oil producer with large uncontracted gas reserves (recently signed gas deals).  High likelihood of corporate action.  Shrewd management turning VPE into what it is today - 10 years ago you'd never have thought.
- COE : As I said above, don't know much about this one.

They've also had write downs and one-offs which have impacted their EBITDA's that HZN didn't normalise, so not quite like-for-like...but anyway, in theory I largely agree that HZN is very favourable to these and will likely to remain so.

For me, HZN is one of the most leveraged oil plays on the ASX and even more so with the Maari-Todd investment.  Aswell as that, they have large PNG gas upside and we could see corporate activity which will provide some look-through value - management are aware of this look-through value and have mentioned this when they have discussed "right sizing" the project.  I also believe we are entering unprecedented times in the oil market which makes HZN relatively low risk even considering it's levered position:

1. Saudi Aramco listing aiming for 2018 and politically, a number of countries aligning to make that happen in a low risk environment for them for political influence - just look at Russia.
2) Huge underinvestment in oil with c. $400b of investment scrapped over recent years in the downturn = reduced supply.
3) Shale Co's have responded well to oil increases but I think there are question marks on their ability to really ramp up production further.
4) Many other bullish things for the oil market: electric cars will not reduce oil demand for a long time etc...but oil co's are perceived to be at risk by this.

Just a few thoughts.  I have put together some numbers on Todd-Maari cashflow numbers, peer-comparisons already and may post sometime.

Expand

SP powering ahead again today, technically and on fundamentals a strong buy.

HZN Price at posting: 9.6¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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(20min delay)
Last 20.5¢		Change 0.010(5.13%)		Mkt cap ! $333.1M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
20.0¢	20.5¢	20.0¢	$563.0K	2.773M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
20	932288	20.0¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
20.5¢	690837	5

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
20	912288	0.200
33	1933889	0.195
42	1855195	0.190
49	2450293	0.185
37	1486042	0.180

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.205	791037	6
0.210	1204873	12
0.215	1149512	10
0.220	1794608	9
0.225	81350	2

Last trade - 11.03am 02/10/2024 (20 minute delay)

HZN (ASX) Chart

SP, page-64

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SP, page-64

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