buy or sell, page-9

"but then also allow for much bigger future returns...
These bigger returns that have been talked of cannot RATIONALLY occur until drill results... which, as we know is at least 4-5 months away...." SC, the 'much bigger future returns' that you speak of will take 4-5 months to eventuate if all goes well.I agree with you on that.
"...less than 10% odds for massive discovery... development and production stages to be discounted heavily, country with such high political risk... 20-25% OCC is the appropriate discount rate.... 5 years minimum development...
.... No major oiler has ever recouped back expenditure in Puntland.... fact....
I will bring up the list of failed oilers soon..." As I see it though RRS does not need a 'massive discovery' as you call it in order for PHOS to recoup his 20% loss & be able to sell at a substantial profit.He could do that on a confirmed spudding date & rig mobilisation.Nor of course does AOI[the big spender] or RRS have to 'recoup expenditure in Puntland'before he can sell at a profit.There is no way I will be leaving all I have in RRS for '5 years minimum development'with the risks involved but there is no way I would sell any now [& lock in a loss]when this could fly soon on spudding confirmation.Instead of focussing on 'failed oilers'as you call them you should be thinking how far & how soon this is likely to move pre-spud imo.