libs or labor, page-28

It depends on what you mean by gradual. I've always anticipated that a decent revaluation would happen when they announced the site of the $450mill wave farm that they've been spruiking for a while now.

They have repeatedly said it would be announced before the end of the year - they've said it so many times in fact that they must be extremely confident of delivering (or taking a big risk of disappointing investors). So between Nov 24 and Dec 31 I'm expecting it.

If they do make the ann, I've really not got a clue how much the SP will go up. Not even sure how much of that announcement has already been baked into the pie. not much i'd think. But if the announcement of the site is backed up with serious state and fed govt support, the price rise would have to be substantial - that's my guess anyway.

The fact is the general public have no idea about wave power - let alone that CETO is actually well advanced. A big announcement would bring huge attention to CETO, and not just in Australia. All subsequent media articles would identify it as a legitimate prospect - not just a field of study for wonks and dreamers.

So a huge market of investors would probably open up and since it will go from developer to produer, you'd think some adventurous institutions would also get on board.

I really think it will be worth being invested before an announcement. But for a big, immediate revaluation, rather than a gradual one, the announcement will have to come across as a done deal - if the govt says CNM has 300 hurdles to get through before final approval in early 2009, that could take the fizz out of it, but otherwise, i'm excited.

The only other obvious development on the horizon is the tender process for the 2nd WA desalination project, which will be looked at in about may next year. Not sure what CNM will put in for that but there is definitely a spot for it under the "unproven" component, with potential for the future - the only question is, how big their share of the project will be.

I have no history in working out the true value of companies or announcements such as this - I really wouldnt have a clue - I tried to get a tipping comp going on this thread about a month ago, to get other, more knowledgable people's views on where the price would go after an announcement, but so far I'm the only tipper! Looks like i'll win!