gmt what are your thoughts on report?, page-5

re: thoughts on shaw report I have just seen the report and think it's very conservative.

Keep in mind:
1. They estimate 5% royalty, when I would expect 10%
2. Their 2005 estimates only include 2m Hep C kits (ie 1st year in ramp up mode). But full operational mode may indicate many times that. With 170m chronic sufferers and 3-4m new cases per year, I would expect that figure to be at least 10m kits per year rather than 2m.

If you take the above into account, the revenue would move from US$6.5m (as per Shaw report) to US$48.6m, again, assuming:
- 10% royalty
- full operation with Hep C

Given very low overheads on this revenue, this is huge!

Have I missed the plot with these numbers?