Chart

I've overlayed a bastardised, up-sloping Alan Andrews' action / reaction setup.. it consists of parallel multi-pivot lines that tend to frame the price action.. keep in mind that a gap is a pivot (an inverse pivot in fact)..

One of the multi-pivot parallels was precisely touched by the top of the recent blow-off top..

You'll see yesterday's price action was rejected at one of the multi-pivots..

The dashed multi-pivot line(s) shown are potential parallels within the structure but have yet to be validated by two or more pivots..

I've also overlayed a Fibonacci retracement of the low of the recent run to 45.5, which appears to have strong validity as the levels of this smaller fib setup overlaps almost precisely with the broader fib retracement from the recent all-time high as well as some horizontal support / resistance..

Price after the recent blow-off has consolidated for two days on the 61.8% retrace of the smaller fib setup.. volume has reduced markedly over these two days, with volume on both days being the lower than each of the preceding six trading days..

On balance, the chart now favours a move to the upside for the following reasons:-

- Price is clearly in an uptrend: it has broken recent down-channel resistance and sits above the 20, 50 and 200 SMA's. Indeed, a crossover of the 20 and 50 SMA's is imminent.

- Price has been pulled up at a logical Fibonacci level.

- This 48.5c level is also incidentally horizontal support  resistance on the intraday chart.

- Volume to the downside, relative to the last eight trading sessions, has very much dried up and relative to the chart as a whole is around or slightly below average volume.

- Indicators have cooled off from previously being in the sell zone.

What troubles me however is:-

- There is a significant amount of trapped supply between 50c and 54.5c. This price region will likely provide some difficulty.

- The RSI is on the verge of completing a bearish swing failure; this is defined as the RSI peaking and pivoting over 70 (5 Jan) then crossing below 70, pivoting back up and then putting in a lower pivot down at or below 70.

Today's trade is important in the short term. If price cannot hold 48.5c then the RSI swing failure will play out and we will have lost support at the fib level and intraday S / R..

If the above occurs look for support at 47c being the confluence of the multi-pivot immediately below and to fib levels from both the all time high retracement as well as the retracement of the recent swing up.. if price retraces to this point it is still very much in an uptrend by any definition..

PVIP