Article: UK Bowland Shale Worth $1 billion, page-11

TGN, I can understand where anyone might have a healthy dose of skepticism with respect to management at AJL. But you seem to have a difficult time separating their problems from the geology and results from Cuadrilla. If anything, I think that the reads on the Bowland have been better than expected.

When was the claim withdrawn re 200 tcf? Can you provide a reference? I think the number will actually prove larger because the BGS estimate doesn't even take into account the gas in the lower Bowland. Cuadrilla seem to think it is higher as well. And just because progress has been slow doesn't make any of these claims less credible. The reservoir engineers have said that initially Cuadrilla can extract around 6.5 bcf per 2.5km well based on core testing and earlier flow results. That number should go higher, as it has in every other shale play in the world, as techniques are refined. If you conservatively assume an improvement to just 8 bcf for that same well but move the laterals out to a more average 5km we get 16bcm/well and with 40 wells that is 640bcf/pad. If we assume 15 pads in the PEDL that gets us close to 10tcf extracted, or 5% of the 200 tcf cited.

I think you are short the stock. No sane shareholder would give the ponzi claim any credibility. It's just an ignorant, sensationalist claim with zero basis in fact. Based on the early flows, the Bowland could easily prove more economic than some of the best shales in the US due not only to the well economics but also because of the prospect of locating so many wells on a single pad due to the thickness of the play. It doesn't take a genius to understand that in a market where gas prices are almost double where they are in the US, having a US-like cost structure will translate into some very appealing cash flows. There is a reason this mystery investor in the UK has pushed hard to get a stake right now.