CUV (ASX) Ann: SCENESSE Treatment in Europe-CUV.AX

Originally posted by cuv101 ↑

18 months ago when the price of the implant was discovered I made some predictions regarding expected sales and share price.
Since then the share price has almost doubled so I am not riddled with guilt if anyone bought on the strength of my post however it has not proceeded as I had hoped for. Nothing ever does!

The German rollout has been, and remains an issue. Pricing negotiations were “difficult” however ultimately successful but much more unexpected was the log jam encountered at the doctor patient level. With patients being turned away due to lack of resources, this has resulted in a much slower take up in the largest non US market. This is expected to only slowly resolve over the foreseeable future tempering revenue expectations.

UK was expected to be done and dusted without incident. The HST/STA/HST debacle cost time with NICE recently delivering a negative preliminary assessment. Clinuvel’s second biggest market outside of the US is seemingly no closer to reimbursement also tempering expectations.

Switzerland, proceeded in the courts with Clinuvel escaping with a bloody nose and damaged reputation having been tarnished with the greedy pharma brush. A problem which seemingly could have been avoided with Swissmedic approval.

Italy has been slow to adopt the new price and some concessions by Clinuvel were given with an agreement to pay for the screening required as part of the EMA dictated post approval safety study.

Austria seems to be treating patients in the single digits and is of little consequence.

Holland is the shining light, with over 100 patients receiving treatment paying full price.

There remains no news from other EU countries or Norway. Wolgen in the AR has reported that a further 6 countries will be targeted in 2018. This has been perhaps disappointing. 5 US patients travel to Switzerland to receive the implant at an unknown price, this is subsidised by US insurance.

What is extremely positive is the reported rate of re-treatment with over 90% of treated patients re-attending for treatment in the second year. This is consistent with the long term data from Switzerland and Italy where the numbers actually increased over the 8 year observation period. This is outstanding for any intervention that treats a symptom only.

I was hopeful of a revenue of $100 million this year, 2018 with over 1000 patients being treated. Last year it was 17 million and with the issues discussed (no UK patients, very few in Germany) clearly Clinuvel wont get anywhere near 100 million this year. $5.5 million in the first quarter with reduced revenues expected for the next 2 quarters, maybe $20-25 million revenue this year. Expenses should be reasonably stable at 9 million. My predicted PE of 50 seems to be about right so a market cap of around 550 - 800 million is still achievable and reasonable IMO, share price $11 - $16. Still plenty of upside and limited downside.

Expand

I agree with your revenue predictions and SP. It is already $9 at the start of 2018.
This company is only going to get bigger and better.
Nice cash balance, cash flow positive on operations, good revenues, orphan drug so no competition, list goes on.
I only wish I had taken my own advice earlier lol.
I hope that we do not get taken out too early, but management seem to have their own value on the company so I don't think that will happen.

No.	Vol.	Price($)
3	644	$14.79

No.

Vol.

Price($)

644

$14.79

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$14.85	3489	1

Price($)

Vol.

No.

$14.85

3489

No.	Vol.	Price($)
3	644	14.790
1	234	14.660
1	234	14.620
1	100	14.600
1	234	14.580

No.

Vol.

Price($)

644

14.790

234

14.660

234

14.620

100

14.600

234

14.580

Price($)	Vol.	No.
14.880	2000	1
14.940	30	1
14.950	2564	1
14.960	1359	2
15.000	3020	2

Price($)

Vol.

No.

14.880

2000

14.940

14.950

2564

14.960

1359

15.000

3020

(20min delay)
Last $14.84		Change 0.260(1.78%)		Mkt cap ! $743.1M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$14.61	$14.99	$14.40	$1.349M	91.96K

Ann: SCENESSE Treatment in Europe-CUV.AX, page-11

American West does it again at Storm with visually identified thick copper hits at Cyclone, Lightning Ridge

PYC commences new study on drug for eye condition Retinitis Pigmentosa type 11

Infini soars 50% as company reveals it could’ve just made uranium history – redefining what it means to be “high grade”

Greentech finds lithium trend across 5.5 km at WA's Kobe South

Legacy shares jump on discovery of multiple epithermal veins at Bauloora JV

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News

Ann: SCENESSE Treatment in Europe-CUV.AX, page-11

Top Stories

American West does it again at Storm with visually identified thick copper hits at Cyclone, Lightning Ridge

PYC commences new study on drug for eye condition Retinitis Pigmentosa type 11

Infini soars 50% as company reveals it could’ve just made uranium history – redefining what it means to be “high grade”

Greentech finds lithium trend across 5.5 km at WA's Kobe South

Legacy shares jump on discovery of multiple epithermal veins at Bauloora JV

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News