GMD 0.93% $2.17 genesis minerals limited

Ann: Change of Director's Interest Notice - Fowler, page-39

  1. 12,259 Posts.
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    Yes. Not that impressed by Da Vinci. If you look at all the directions they have drilled in to that discovery most of the Au/Cu is concentrated very close to that dyke. The mineralisation then seems to be off set again by a fault and although it persists its tenor is significantly reduced. The only real direction (barring more good holes to the north) seems to be down. I'd say when you try and calculate a reserve there it won't be very large at all and being so vertical and confined it won't add as much as people expect to the Deflector mine plan. It would be different if they got some nice hits further to the north. The drilling there is more evidence in my opinion that Deflector is far more patchy than people think and will disappoint. If the load was that good they wouldn't be emphasising Da Vinci to the extent they are doing or considering driving towards it with their mine plan. They should have plenty of stopes to mine by now. In my opinion the little money they have should have been spent proving up reserves in the existing resource envelop that the original mine design is based on. Sure chase Da Vinci but do it with money that comes in from mining not your lifeline money.

    To me the rise in the price is speculation driven, people thinking they bought the bottom and have got in cheap based on jawboning by management about the mine working at full capacity. I like to see the proof in the pudding with net cash rising and net debt falling over a couple of quarters. I don't trust Deflector to deliver long term returns or the jawboning from management. I also like to steer clear of fallen angels, you never know when they might fall again. RMS was different because they reinvented themselves buying new assets at the bottom of the market. But good luck to you for getting in on the rise, just make sure you understand why it has risen. In my opinion its just speculation driven. You obviously can make up your own mind though. I could be wrong about it but I can't see a bright future there for the long term and that's what I like to see with my miners. Not the specs like this one however where I'm happy to take a punt or two.Esh
 
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