Where to next for the TRS share price?

For those of you who purchased TRS at $3.50-$4+ and are considering selling because TRS has had a good run, here is some food for thought:

- I'm assuming TRS meets H1 guidance and breaks even in H2 (both reasonable assumptions at this point). This should mean EBITDA of ~$44m for the FY, and NPAT of about $17m ($44m-$20 (D&A) - Tax $7m).
- The average EV/EBITDA multiple for TRS over the 6 year period ending Dec 2016 was 7.8x. A return to this level would equate to a share price of ~$12;
- The average P/E multiple over the same period was 17.6x. A return to that P/E would mean a share price of $10.30

The above is not particularly optimistic and more of a base case (assuming H1 is achieved) because:

- Early H1 was relatively weak and we are only assuming breakeven for the second half. Accordingly, there is significant earnings upside if they can continue to execute well;
- The multiple's mentioned above are just average levels over the 6 year period. The peak valuations were significantly higher and could be achievable if the market begins to believe TRS can continue to grow. (I can easily get valuations closer to $20 or more in a range of scenarios)

So although TRS has had a good run, if the H1 result meets guidance and the market turns its focus from a company trying to stave off bankruptcy to one with a solid position and good growth outlook, the share price could easily double from current levels in the next 12 months. So lets hope for a good H1 result ;-)