Management Sell Down, page-81

Ronnie's mention of GSW is a reminder of why it's important for a share price not to get too far ahead of the underlying business.

It certainly did with BUD and has since come back to the pack, but is still wildly over-valued by any traditional measure, at least until the next 4C is released.

This is why I'd be happy for BUD to stabilise around these levels, perhaps crawl slowly up to 27-28c, and then only increase based off of material announcements; by which I mean announcements with revenue figures.

The risk we run if the price runs too far ahead of revenue is shorters become interested, so does the Twittersphere and then eventually AFR or their ilk start digging. Then, despite what the underlying strength of the business offering may be, articles in the press about over-valuation and relatively low revenue start to appear.

This, unto itself may not seem that bad. "Just another opportunity to top up" I hear you say. BUT... companies looking to get into bed with another company on a three-year contract, which is BUD's standard terms remember, also do their due diligence. They want to make sure they're not about to waste considerable time and money installing systems, training staff, updating processes, integrating with other business systems if whomever it is they are about to partner with can't keep up their end of the bargain.

If Mantra Hotels (MTR) decided to install Ohm in all of their premises (wouldn't that be nice?) and sign on for a three-year minimum contract, you can be damn sure they'll be doing such checks. It's much better that any mentions they come across of BUD are limited to green energy, Tech and IoT type sites  or positive customer case studies, and not the business pages as something "growing too fast, too soon on too little revenue". That's a red flag and profitable companies avoid red flags.

So, whilst I'm happy for huge and sudden share price appreciation, only if it's supported by revenue; not hope and hyperbole. I'll take slow and steady if it means I'm still there at the finish line instead of burnt out and a footnote in an Alan Kohler anecdote in years to come.

*Please check my sentiment below*