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pgrace

5,170 Posts.

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27/01/18

00:56

Post #: 30597196
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Originally posted by Drugo ↑

I look at the VIX index and the way market indexes have performed. You may as well buy the Dow 30 or S&P 500. Before I sold my book pre GFC. I sent newsletters warning clients about irrational investment behaviour. Become defensive.
This situation is starting to come around again. This is not normal.
Everybody wants Europe which is in more sheet than BLK if you look at the real interest rate.
For gods sake they are flat out making GDP at 2% on negative interest rates. ie -.5% to 1%.
At the current interest rate environment emerging markets are the place to be also.
These economies use to rely on 6% -8% to issue bonds that were rated A or BBB at best. Now they can get 3%-4% on the same rating. Nothing has changed except Moody's and S&P ratings which are sleeping overpaid individuals. (look at their bond ratings on these emerging markets pre GFC.)
Bottom line, the market has not looked at risk in the current interest rate environment.
We shall see if interest rates rise and there is actually a risk premium attached to all I stated above.
No analyst on Bloomberg has said there is currently minimal risk in the current market index. Except a surprise inflation number. That is what they said pre GFC.
Why is the price of gold so high right now? People remember.
These analysts/funds have made a lot of money on the current market. (no brainer). Let us see when they have to scramble for a change. (which is becoming due. free money is gone).
pharmas, gold and non discretionary stocks may have there fun in the sun again.

Of course this could be like the weather man saying it's going to rain soon. It may rain soon. (have a go at the price of Tesla, bitcoin etc).

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Great post.

Also - note this - "Why is the price of gold so high right now? People remember."

Gracie

GOR, KIN, BLK, Gold Bullion, Silver Bullion holder.

BLK Price at posting: 7.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
2 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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Macro Factor, page-2

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