COB (ASX) Help With Valuation Exercise on COB

Originally posted by Duncan04 ↑

@ persistentone: for CAPEX you may want to look a this thread of a few days ago
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-significant-thackaringa-drilling-program-complete.3976474/#.WmyXJiOPBE4
I have taken the figures from holders who seem to have specific knowledge but they are all estimates of course:
From Precipitate: 132KV 22 km line Below $ 20M +transmission substation at mine under $20M: Max $ 60 Million in worst case. (FYI COB mentions 66Kv line.)
From Rogue: $ 2M/ km for 4 lane highway without bridges: As 22km from Borken Hill to site = 44Million + i assume 30% in case of bridges etc = $ 60 Million max.
From Eureka: $ 30 Million for 22km water pipeline
Processing plant:by far the most difficult to calculate: each mine is unique especially in the case of COB:but from Eureka : estimation of $250 Million. Personally, taking into consideration the fact that there is no need for expensive HPAL + the fact that only 20% of the mined ore would need to be treated (since COB would use a cheap and simple gravitation process to get a concentrate first ( COB mentioned laterite projects can't do that) ) i expect the processing plant cost to be significantly lower than its competitors in Australia, but only time ( PFS then DFS) will tell for sure.
Engineering: from Eureka: 8% of above Capex = 8% of 400 M = $ 32M
Total: AU$ 432Million. = US$ 345 Million

COB’s goal is to produce 4000T/Y equivalent metal = 8 Million pounds (if they are using US Ton). Their aim (check their announcement) is to be at OPEX US$10 to 12/lb and right now world prices are north of $34/lb. So turnover would be around US$ 270M/ y and operating profit at USD 176 Million/y if we take $12/lb.

Now for comparison:
-CLQ (Mine in Australia):as they were getting listed on TSX last month they announced: Capital cost US$ 780 Million BUT for output Cobalt metal equiv. 5000t/ y and 18 700 T/y of Nickel ( last figure based on PFS as no update on Nickel in Nov 1^st 2017 release),. Further their mine is laterite and as such they need to use the expensive HPAL, not the case for COB.
-Ecobalt (Mine in Idaho US): total LOM capital and reclamation cost is estimated at $288.1M, including $186.7M for initial capital, $5.8M for long term water treatment bond collateral, and $95.6M in sustaining capital and mine development capital during production over the LOM, reclamation and closure cost. I assume figures are in Canadian dollar. As per their website they aim was to produce 1500 ton of Cobalt Sulphate/ y but V recently they seem to reconsider and instead produce a more upstream product, Cobalt concentrate instead. On 27 Sept http://www.ecobalt.com/news/news-re...feasibility-study-on-the-idaho-cobalt-project the revised planned Output would be 2200 T of Cobalt along with 1650T of Copper and 3000 Oz of Gold/ y. ( Conversions made based on US Ton).

Expand

I appreciate the ideas around capex.

Does cobalt usually sell on forward contracts, as a negotiated commodity like lithium would? Lithium spot price is north of $20K USD/ton, whereas the actual selling price is based on forward contracts is around $13K USD/ton. $35/ton (or whatever today's cobalt price is) is a spot price.

I did not realize they were using US tons in their estimates. I (incorrectly) assumed that all of these miners had standardized on metric tonne.

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	12127	8.7¢

No.

Vol.

Price($)

12127

8.7¢

Price($)	Vol.	No.
8.8¢	11793	1

Price($)

Vol.

No.

8.8¢

11793

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	12127	0.087
2	12360	0.086
3	90972	0.085
1	7024	0.084
1	78313	0.083

No.

Vol.

Price($)

12127

0.087

12360

0.086

90972

0.085

7024

0.084

78313

0.083

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.088	11793	1
0.090	98159	1
0.092	102000	1
0.095	16811	2
0.096	2200	1

Price($)

Vol.

No.

0.088

11793

0.090

98159

0.092

102000

0.095

16811

0.096

2200

(20min delay)
Last 8.7¢		Change -0.001(1.14%)		Mkt cap ! $36.69M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
9.0¢	9.0¢	8.5¢	$27.10K	308.0K

Help With Valuation Exercise on COB, page-45

Infini soars 50% as company reveals it could’ve just made uranium history – redefining what it means to be “high grade”

Nimy to raise $1.21M to explore 'newsy' WA targets

SKS Technologies wins US$90M award to supply power to international hyperscale data centre in Melbourne

Nanocap Middle Island Resources kicks off Barkly copper-gold drill run – a potential IOCG-style NT project

BHP dips as WA nickel suspended after A$6B hit; losses eased by US CPI and forewarning

Almonty locks in govt agreement for tungsten oxide plant in South Korea

ASX hits all time high out the gate on Friday trades following bullish US inflation data

Immutep reports strong response rate from immunotherapies treating carcinomas

Bitcoin investors need to know the risks

Week 27 Wrap: ASX hits all time high; CBA shares' two realities; US inflation hits 3% ahead of China plenum

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News

Help With Valuation Exercise on COB, page-45

Top Stories

Infini soars 50% as company reveals it could’ve just made uranium history – redefining what it means to be “high grade”

Nimy to raise $1.21M to explore 'newsy' WA targets

SKS Technologies wins US$90M award to supply power to international hyperscale data centre in Melbourne

Nanocap Middle Island Resources kicks off Barkly copper-gold drill run – a potential IOCG-style NT project

BHP dips as WA nickel suspended after A$6B hit; losses eased by US CPI and forewarning

Almonty locks in govt agreement for tungsten oxide plant in South Korea

ASX hits all time high out the gate on Friday trades following bullish US inflation data

Immutep reports strong response rate from immunotherapies treating carcinomas

Bitcoin investors need to know the risks

Week 27 Wrap: ASX hits all time high; CBA shares' two realities; US inflation hits 3% ahead of China plenum

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News