The debate between whether TA is better or worse wrt to FA is an ongoing debate but as you can see from history neither is conclusively better than the other. I define them as TA being the eyes that you can only see from the past as opposed to some corruption of the belief that it is a predictive tool to 'see' the future AND FA is the belief system based on how one forecast projecting into the future. IMO one needs both to be able to utilise a better picture of the history and the future going forward. I don't want to continue going down this endless debating road....
If you appreciate technology then you will understand that it is constantly changing or innovated as a better description of the current usage. Take for example the humble mobile phone when I first bought mine, an Errickson that has magnetic strength to pick up a spoon! Nokia and several of those phones later together with Motorola/Blackberry were replaced with newer smart phone and you know the rest. Remember the NiCad battery that were soon followed by LiNMH then the Li battery that we know today. Yes the recent history 'tells' me that Li commercialisation as a battery source has a longer technology life span. This is my belief and Yes I do believe that it has the first mover advantage but I do not know how the future of Li plays out simply because it is easy to get carried away with a belief based on a natural bias. "Never ask a barber if you need a hair cut"
I brought out the IO example because during the massive boom, China had an insatiable appetite matched by the price of IO and the record demand through various stats measure especially triggered through China's economic expansion. When the boom started how many IO players did you think they were in Oz? A handful of which it was the big boys arena and only late editions of the mid-large caps new breeds. Sprinkled with a few US/Brazilian players, it was just a handful supplying to China. Demand outstrips supply = boom. As the supply caught up you see the effects reflected on price with a cyclical down turn that also sucked in other steel making commodities.
Currently Li is at the stage where supply is outstripping demand? Is this perceived or are we talking about the potential for this to materialise? 1M out of 90M cars manufactured each year suggest that the big Li supplier/battery manufacturers are positioning for the big potential demand of EV going forward. Lets not confused potential demand with real demand like the experience of IO boom! Also don't confused what I am inferring is my disbelief of the potential for steep demand. I can see that too but until that EV revolution takes off it is still only a potential.
The supply-demand of Li goes up and down depending upon many factors, some outside our control. As an example if indeed the current sell off in the US equity markets is actually the trigger for the next global crisis through bond yield spike making run away inflation and all that negative side effects, the program of EV could stall as consumer focus on the crisis at hand. I am cautiously confident that the sell off is healthy and required in order to remove the froth (re-US equities). However I will not indulge in blind predictions/assumptions I know the events unfolding in the future.
In conclusion, if the Dow continues to sell off big time my past experience tells me that those with the most short term gain will face plenty of defensive profit protection. Everyone suffers regardless of the chip colour of their stocks. Some will be worse off than others. IF it is nothing more than a scare/small correction then it will be business as usual on the way up. Pick your prediction poison. Good luck from Monday to all of us with exposure to equities.....
PLS Price at posting:
91.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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