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A price correction doesn’t mean that the market will settle in at lower prices for the long haul. Demand is rising and OPEC will likely maintain high levels of compliance with its production limits.
Moreover, the severe cutbacks in upstream spending that began when oil prices initially collapsed in 2014 have yet to really be felt in terms of supply. Large-scale projects that received FIDs before the market downturn were carried through to completion, allowing new supply to come onto the market even as the industry made sharp spending cutbacks. But that pipeline of projects is now on the verge of drying up, which raises questions about the availability of supply next year and beyond.
“From next year onwards, we literally halve the number of projects and decline rates are picking up,” Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at Energy Aspects, said on Bloomberg TV. “I do think there is a potential for spike … We’ve seen a huge amount of shale production growth, 1.5 million barrels per day, year-on-year in Q417, and still we are drawing stocks everywhere. That just shows you that we aren’t adding enough supplies elsewhere and demand growth is very high.”
Sen says the market won’t go back to the days of $100-plus, but “it could be a spike up to $90-plus in 2019. Yeah, absolutely we can.”

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Oil-Prices-Collapse-Now-Spike-Later.html