Mini sell-down yesterday could either be some nervous nellies throwing it in just before tomorrow's results (understandably given the recent management sell-down pre downgrade fiasco), or otherwise an accumulator having been actively taking advantage of the uncertainty/doubt and push down to near 52-week low with a lack of volume/support, as seen in the buy/sell patterns of late, again before window closes ahead of announcement tomorrow.
My humble 2c here is H1 should be at least in line with Nov downgrade, otherwise by ASX listing/disclosure rules they'd have already announced a 2nd downgrade well and truly by now (Jan - early Feb typically time for 2nd round confessions).
Some will be looking closely at update/progress on H2 to see if all is good indeed medium/long term.
The CEO has a decent record of building businesses in this space, however Freedom is perhaps his first time in the public light with a listed company, so yes definitely a lesson learnt with upsetting some instos with sell-down some early in the game (one would argue at least full 24 months with no stuff-ups and demonstrate a clear growth/transition path before a founder would then sell down).
Can't say the same about the other holders of the 24m shares released from escrow from 5 March tho. But that's the name of the day - companies get listed so some can buy from others who sell looking for a quick buck.
Instos like Forager plays a long game so as long as Freedom is making cash they'd be happy to soak up a chunk of that excess with the amount of cash they're sitting on. P/E, P/B and share price will catch up in time relative to others in the insurance space.
The life insurance space has been under the spotlight with ASIC review (e.g. Clearview refunding $1.5m and closing down direct insurance arm, Comminsure scandal etc.). If Freedom comes out clean (has been so far) then it's an opportunity for it to grab market share and move to no.2 spot.
Let's see tomorrow.
FIG Price at posting:
45.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
