I think its understandable that the SP has tanked this morning, but i dont think its about the numbers, i think its about confidence in managements ability to hit their targets, it is a very important thing which i dont want to downplay, but i hope that mid year when ASC comes online and NZ sale is binding concern about the numbers in the miss will mostly be forgotten.
Its not a good result overall, but there is good news that is probably being overlooked by some;
"Indicative bids received at end of phase 1
A short-list of parties have now been invited into phase 2 of the process"
Bids is plural, so at least 2, but i hope a 'short list' means more than 2. So its reasonable to expect that there will be competitive bidding, i expect there is at least Trustpower, 2Degrees+Private Equity, and i think it makes sense that Telstra would be in there, but i have nothing to back that up.
The numbers being compared to are first half last year, which was stronger than 2nd half IIRC, so it should be a good improvement on 2nd half, but i havent done a proper comparison.
The core of the business is doing well, "Data networks" up 31m (+14.6%)
"Successful ASC launch event held in Jakarta with Indonesian partner XL Axiata. Pacific Telecom
Conference a successful stage to conclude some advanced sales. Four agreements have been
executed"
And during the conference calls Mark mentioned that prepayments where a "significant" amount (i think thats the word he used)
The numbers given today dont take ASC into account, and ASC will be leveraging and supporting our core strength of data-networks.
The electricity hedging is a disappointing, previously they had trouble from not having enough leverage, it seems like a hard thing to get right.
I guess we shouldnt be surprised about broadband numbers, but it worth noting that Telstra EBITDA margin for 'Fixed Data' (included NBN) dropped 28% to 17% in the last half, so i dont know that its anything we are doing wrong, rather an industry wide thing.
The last quarter ACCC numbers show a dramatic shakeup, and obviously effected by everyone changing the plans, also worth noting that Dodo and iPrimus dont have a 100Mbps plan, and ACCC are still stalking RSP about legal action regarding advertising saying they are still monitoring some companies or something like that. The two issues could be related.
I expect we will all be happy when NZ is sold, debt reduced and ASC paid for, which is hopefully only months away, its a risk-off situation.
(and thanks for the kind words after i left, but i still want to maintain my distance from the site)
