Australia's largest stock trading and investment forum Australia's #1 stock forum

XAO all ordinaries

1.30%

9,006.8

Short Term Trading Weekend Lounge: 23-25th Feb, page-59

First 59 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
Brumbie

2,979 Posts.

866

24/02/18

17:41

Post #: 31316206
Share

Originally posted by peejayhercules ↑

Freehold has mentioned a few times that not enough attention is given to having trading rules for your selling, and far too much attention is given towards the buying side of things.

In looking through the library and various postings scattered throughout HC, there seem to be two approaches to consider.
The first one is event driven - ie. drilling results come out and the SP spikes upward - take some off the table
The second is target related - ie. after a gain of 50 percent etc - take some off the table.

I've been dabbling in merging the two approaches, but I seem to have ended up with a Duckworth-Lewis-Stern method of selling. For those that are not cricket aficionados, the Duckworth-Lewis-Stern method is an ingenious system designed to confuse cricket followers to the point where at the end of a match you're not quite sure who won. It's rules are as follows:

"The DLS (Duckworth-Lewis-Stern) method works on the principle that a batting team has two resources in hand when starting an ODI innings: 300 balls, and ten wickets. As the innings progresses, these resources keep depleting, and eventually reaches zero when a team either plays out all 300 deliveries, or loses all 10 wickets.

When, due to any reason, the batting team loses overs, they are denied the opportunity to make full use of their resources. Targets are hence revised in a way that is proportional to the amount of resources available to each team.

The rate at which these resources deplete isn't uniform across the overs, but varies depending on the scoring patterns of ODIs (calculated from studying matches over several years). At any point, the resources lost due to an interruption depends on:

- number of overs lost - stage of an innings when the overs are lost - wickets in hand at the time of the interruption

Losing overs in the later stages of an innings will usually impact a team more than losing the same number of overs earlier in an innings, as those overs are more productive, and teams have less opportunity to recalibrate their targets than if overs are lost early in the innings. A team which is already six down after 20 overs will have lesser to lose from a 10-over interruption, than a team which is, say, only two down at that stage. That is because in the first case, the team has already lost a huge chunk of their batting resources by the dismissals of six top-order batsmen. A team which is only two down can better capitalize on the last 30 overs than a team which is six down. However, the system doesn't take into account the specific batsmen who have been actually dismissed, or those who are still to bat."

Confused? .... Hmmmm .... I think I need to refine the system and go back to the KISS principle (Keep It Simple Stupid)

Expand

Yep. I thought I was ready to trade but after our chat the other day I decided to have another look at exits as I must admit I did not give it due diligence. What am I looking for? LT trade and ride the waves, take part profits at resistance or get out all together and re-enter after retrace or not also trailing sells have to be considered. I have decided on loose stop losses, if any, 10% away ? It is different for every trade. I will decide when I buy it and stick to it. I have to be happy mentally with a profit of any size.
7 Upvote

0 Great analysis

Reply

Top Stories

Week 29 Wrap: ASX hits new all time high of 8,766pts ahead of Aug 1

Listen: HotCopper Wire Podcast 018 – Potatoes, TACOs, and the $120M helicopter heist

DRO

History repeats for DroneShield investors but carnage so far subdued

STN

Saturn brings up seventh straight Apollo Hill upgrade on 'impressive' 300-hole drill run

PSC

Prospect's Mumbezhi Project puts it at the middle of copper's megatrend. And FQM just bought in

BDM

Burgundy plunges -20% after turning to layoffs to navigate record-low diamond prices

SER

Strategic Energy extends its QLD copper-gold frontier with Diamantina acquisition

AII

A new NASDAQ listing for a key player in the global critical minerals space

HotCopper Highlights: Trigg; Droneshield; Lumos & more

SYR

Syrah jumps +19% as graphite tariff threat spurs optimism down under

First 59 Last

Add to My Watchlist

What is My Watchlist?

A personalised tool to help users track selected stocks. Delivering real-time notifications on price updates, announcements, and performance stats on each to help make informed investment decisions.