Thought I'd start a new thread that moves away from the regurgitated stuff now being posted on the other thread. IMO that stuff is all irrelevant. There will be no arbitration for reasons posted in my post of 18 Feb.
Since then I noticed that a few others have also started embracing the thought of a FAR/WPL deal.. as opposed to actually taking the matter to ICC. There are just too many signs that suggests that the impasse will come to an end by way of a deal. The risk for WDL to lose out is just too much.
Further to my earlier thoughts expressed in support of parties pursuing a negotiated outcome (I believe a deal had already been cut), I take those thoughts a bit further in light of recent events.
Those events pertain to the WPL CR. A few, whom I perceive to have a fair grip on these type of issues ( and it had been raised in one or two articles) , expressed that the CR was simply much bigger than required for what WPL had slated. But they did say, part of it will go towards SNE development. And of course, that statement is so "open-ended" it can just about entail anything, including funding FAR's portion to first oil. I believe this to be the case. But all has to remain under raps for a little while longer.
Of course WPL could not go into specific, because they need to successfully complete the retail portion for the CR first. For that reason there will be no news from anyone (FAR or WPL) until at least end of March when WPL would know that they have raised all the monies they set out to raise. Once successfully completed, part of those monies will go towards a face-saving deal which will see WPL retaining most or all of the 35%. In exchange, with a bit of "co-mingling (Senegal leases and Gambia lease all being on the table)", WPL will earn a interest in Gambia. This to soften the blow (from investors' perspective") for the amount that will be allocated towards development and farmin/exploration work to be paid by WPL. This will see the PE go away, and will gain FAR's support for WPL to take Operatorship as well as a good chunk of Gambia, (estimated barrel numbers of which had already been specified by RISK - again for specific reason - to put a price on say 35%).
Those who align with a similar train of thought, namely a negotiated DEAL as opposed to arbitration, thoughts are invited as to what that final "DeaL" $ figure will be. I've previously expressed that, IMO, all up (PE removed, and some 35% farmin to Gambia) could be in the range of $600-$700 mil. That is some $400-$500 mil for FAR's development cost to first oil in SNE and around $200mil for 35% stake in the form of say 2 uncapped wells (Say approx $100mil) plus some $100mil cash ( back costs and some more). Remember CNE and COP came in to grab a 75% of FAR's 90% but that was for wildcats - huge risk and very little known about actual existence of oil present. Playing field changed. Gambia is very different. Here we have a case where the chances of an 800mil barrel field is on the cards.... on trend with SNE etc etc. Much less risk after SNE. So, easier for someone to pay a fair and good "get-in" price where a lot of risk had been removed. So, yes, I think a $200mil pricetag for $35% is fair. CN did say.. they are not stupid and won't be caught up in a similar situation as had happened with the Senegal leases.
Thoughts welcome.
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