In Australia, as I understand, there is no obligation to disclose below 5%, and some holders may prefer to keep a low profile.
From comments I've read by Colomobo I understand that top 20 shareholder listings can be purchased which should be up to date, and usually companies will have an provide on request or in a recent report top 20 listings that might be nearly up to date.
Beyond that, I'm speculating.
Personally I am curious as to which North American institution is involved as well. It seems to me that it would be hard for a North American interest to secure control of the resource given the commitment of the chinese already - and that makes me wonder if the North American institution might be something like a hedge fund acquiring a chunk of shares they might make available for shorting.
Having observed how a single company with a large resource base (FMG) was played during its development it does seem possible that AVZ might have some appeal for a company interested in playing off the retail investors because it has a good combination of being pretty likely to give value (at at least the buy in price - so low chance of losing money over three years or so) and in the short term to offer opportunities to swing trade off the perceived risk elements and lack of certainty. This paragraph is pure speculation. But given the chinese are working on the access roads and are very influential in the congo I don't see that an American co could have enough security to control the resource - they could only aim at being at best an equal partner. Imo.
