Mosaic have a couple of big factors in their favour.
Firstly, their new technique works, and they will be able to work over a number of old drill holes. I estimate they will get payable fields out of half the workovers, and it costs about a third of a new hole ($0.5m rather than $1.5m).
Secondly, they have enough cash in the bank not to worry about things.
Thirdly, seeing they own pipelines and a LNG plant already, they can monetise new discoveries easily.
Finally, they just found a field that will probably be worth $30-$45m, given that a P10 number of 90 BCF probably turns into 30 bcf, and that means $30-$45 of revenue over the next 2-3 years, depending on prices.
If I was MOS, I'd be looking long and hard at leasding a LNG tanker, loading it up, and sailing for the US as quickly as possible.
Ian Whitchurch
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