Yeh I agree and there was good support and volume yesterday.
On another point I posted (12-02) after the Amsterdam Purchase announcement more so with regard to the AUD 30 cent profit margin (assume EBITDA) and ask whether anyone had nailed down the IGE rollout etc to understand the end game / value proposition for any shareholder etc.
I have now read the original prospectus and the supplementary’s and most of the presentations over the past 12 months, in particular the EGM Presentation 08-2017.
EGM Presentation 08-2017 Rollout.
- UK 4 plants each processing 200 tpd of waste plastics – each plant produces 70m litres of fuel per annum. Assume all plants commissioned / operating year 5 = 280m litres of fuel pa @ 30 cents = $84m pa. Assume all sites are 100% owned by IGE.
- Amsterdam – processing initially 100 tpd of waste plastics then increasing to 200 tpd as stated in the International Model. JV = IGE 90% + Partner 10%. Assume processing 100 tpd = 35m litres @30 cents = $10.5m. IGE = $9.975m. (cant actually predict when IGE will start processing 200 tpd prob year 3)
- USA 10 plants commissioned over 5 years each plant process 1,500 tpd of waste plastics, each plant producing 500m litres of fuel pa. JV = IGE 50% + GEP 50%. Year five producing 5 billion litres of fuel per annum @30 cents = $1.5B (EBITDA) @ IGE 50% = $750m
Collectively these numbers are staggering, discount this number by 50% and you are looking at approximately $400m pa to IGE, cut it by 60% and you are still north of $300m pa.
From my research there will be approximately 365m shares on issue and approx 297m options (majority options are at 40 cents). Where I do need help is what industry multiple should be applied (progressively applied) on execution of their roll out. Also taking into consideration that should IGES options be exercised they would be worth $100m + to IGES.
execution execution then where talking big.
