I think you are still seeing MYR through rose colored glasses.
It's good to be positive, but you also need to be realistic.
The H1 result will be they key, but the signs are that things are pretty dismal.
In reply to your post....
"Your Commentry is welcomed, But Im not setting a buy target yet, because I think this could slip until the ex-date of the dividend, or a decleration of no dividend this year."
If you owned MYR, would you declare a dividend? Given the new strategy failure and them not being able to give any indication of full year profit, I know what I would do.
"As far as the financial facts goes,
Myer generates 3 billion pa or so of sales, with 1.7B of that in 1H 2018. So this is no Chump of a Company even though many comment on it like its a fly by night speck stock."
Revenue (which is declining) does nor equal profit.
"All of retail was down for all Retail Businesses, not just Myer. Online was up, but so was Myers online sales."
They give no revenue or profit numbers for online (other than a percentage revenue increase), so thus is difficult to comment on.
"Myers woes, is retail wide. There is alot they could do better and in time I think they will, with possible tax cuts helping that."
What tax cuts are you referring to? MYR needs help now, not in 12 months time.
"There is an Agenda in play, so even 30c is possible, and only the crazy wouldnt take a slice of that chance."
If it gets to 30c, that will be the beginning of the end for current shareholders.
"The risk of crash is to the upside, much like how a speck stock with all rumour goes from 40c to $2- on pure BS hype with no substance."
No retail business with sow moving revenue has done this. Lew is the only real unknown and he is not going to do anything rash.
"We could see MYR trade at crazy prices based on down trend chart blow off, and rumour."
Anything could happen. But is it probable?
"A good CFO and CEO could flip this company around and turn the trend from down to up."
Not many great retail CEOs are around. Lew (and he also has the ex-DJs CEO) is the obvious choice. But this is not an overnight job. Things will get worse before they get better and change takes time and money.
"A soon as any green good news is on the table there is 12% of stock to cover shorts, as they would be crazy to not try and cover all they have under 50c."
I see no evidence of this.
"The Long term value , potentially could be a 4 Billion company with 1 Billion total shares by then, so $4- per share is possible."
But probable? Potentially this could go into VA this calendar year.
"So many Verticals for online sales are just a phone call away and MYR has Insurance, Lending, Phone plans, home loans, pretty much anything you can think of, fuel discount vouchers. All sorts of things."
No. Just no. Not only does this do zero to get people in the door to buy things in stores, you can't just create these businesses at no cost and make money from day one.
"I wouldnt buy a TV with Kogan on it, But with a Myer Brand on it, even if it was the same factory, Id have a TV with Myer brand on it."
Maybe stop thinking about what you would do and consider what people actually do in reality.
"At 370m this company is insanely cheap, and lets talk about Risk ."
Cheap for a reason.
"Id prefer to have money at Risk in a Company with 3 Billion of sales per year and 1.2 Billion of Gross Profit.
Myer has interest expenses of 10 million, thats like one grain of rice."
You keep on focusing on these numbers which are not as relevant as profit or the fact that revenue is reducing, along with profit.
"Think of Companies that were at high risk on debt like FMG and STO when they were way down.
They had Billions of debt. FFS Myer only has 143m of debt and 3 Billion of sales."
The amount of free cash flow that FMG has is massive - Over 4billion last year, so it has cash to service debt. Plus, well mining is a totally different business, so its. nit really comparing apples with apples.
"Sure I could be wrong and 42c goes to nil, But I doubt it."
I agree. But it is absolutely possible It is more probable that current shareholders could see continued pain at these low levels for years. There are plenty of companies that have had restructures where current shareholders have lost out.
"Myer can one day again trade above $4- and be a Disallowed from this level..
All the experts will start singing its praises when it breaks $1.50 in a few years time."
Disallowed? I just can't see it, even remotely.
$1.50 in a few years? Sure, possible, but given the current financials and strategy, yow can't show how this is going to happen.
Lew is smarter than all of us. He could easily make a lot of money out of this , or even just walk away. But don't expect him to share his money with other shareholders.
Time will tell with this one.
Good luck to current holders.
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