Ann: Change of Director's Interest Notice, page-57

Hi Blackgog, my thoughts are Gangfen want lithium and MIN have talked before about selling their stake in Mount Marion as have NMT, if Gangfen buy out the mine ie MIN 42% and NMT’s 13.8% then that should cost between 1.2 and 1.5 billion all up.
I don’t see Gangfen buying out NMT in its entirety as they would need to buy all asssets includining Titainium ( the big one) as a shareholder that wouldn’t get my vote unless bid for NMT alone was in religion of 1.5 billion or $3 share.
My guess is they go for the mine to secure future lithium supply and prevent trigger of buyback, if they do the question is at what price, come FY 19 our end 13.8% from shipments per yr estimated $30m therefor MIN end 42% $90m giving total $120m per yr.
If Gangfen pay between 8 and 10 times income then bid between $960m and $1.2 billion our rights to buy back may push bid towards the higher figure 13.8% of $1.2 billion gives us approx $170m for our Mount Marion stake.
The Morgan Stanley forecast has impacted lithium stock prices to me unnecessarily as I don’t consider their forecast to be accurate but time will tell, also don’t forget NMT agreed a minimum price with Gangfen which cannot be reduced so if lithium prices were to dive Gangfen need to pay NMT the agreed minimum price which could be much higher than market spot which is another reason Gangfen may wish to buy our remaining interest in Mount Marion.
Arlington analyst valued NMT 13.8% stake at 54ct from memory which would be around $250m so just depends how bullish Gangfen bid will be if they do indeed bid, they may chase another lithium play as they have take or pay rights to take the supply provided of course NMT don’t exercise their rights to buy 12.6% or so come 2020 if they do Gangfen get paid market price by NMT for whatever NMT take.
See how it plays out but I wouldn’t be surprised if Gangfen make a bid for Mount Marion but doubt they will buy out NMT as a company, hope not plenty value to come going forward I’d hate to be taken out early before the main event, all the best, Loop.