1. HSBC estimated some 28% of Gen Y owned homes, that's significant isn't it? The major concern is for the other 50% who probably would like to own a home, in addition to the proportion of the 26% who own but are also likely to be highly geared. Yes the majority are probably aspiring buyers.
http://www.hsbc.com/-/media/hsbc-co...d-the-bricks-press-release-generation-buy.pdf
2. If you add this ~28% with the probability that some 70% or slightly more of Gen X , Boomers and Silents own homes and that as the years pass the 'kids' will move to the buying phase and Gen Xers will also start to approach retirement age you will see that Gen Xer's will start selling to the 'kids' as well. So the selling 'group' may actually be larger than the buying group - 'kids'.
Then you got to factor into the other 'selling group' the DEVELOPERS who will continue to build, producing an additional 150,000 to 200,000 dwelling per year. Now are you still confident which will be the larger group going forward?
3. As i stated the boomer's assets are likely to be in high demand due to there location more likely to be in inner/established areas (prices in these are are more likely to outperform the outer areas), so demand for these assets isn't the issue.
What I'm trying to point out and to counter your assertion that the ABS stats indicating the 'kids' buyer group outnumbering the 'others' seller groups is not necessarily true, more likely it could be the opposite.
I don't believe there is going to be a shortage of total stock (there maybe periods where population growth surges, speculative and foreign buyer activity artificially boost demand and create price surges, but they will eventually subside as they have in the past), the 'kids' buying group is not going to outnumber the selling group, but of course varying demand levels for properties in different location will result in different price performance.
