holding nervously..., page-4

Argh....conflicting reports coming from everywhere, I am going to be in a mental home by age 20 at this rate :O

from egoli:

QAN – A star is born – but will it shine?

The launch of JetStar – Qantas’s new LCC in May 2004 – may well become one of the most important events in the airlines 82 year history. Either way, whether JetStar is an unmitigated disaster or a major success for Qantas (we believe the latter), the launch of JetStar does not appear to be good news for Virgin Blue’s (VBA) growth prospects.

JetStar will launch with 14 B717 from the old Impulse Shell in May 2004 and plans to transition its fleet to 23, 177 seat A320 aircraft by June 2006. The aim of JetStar is simple, to profitably offer the lowest airfares on new and existing leisure routes, where Qantas currently can’t by operating the lowest airline cost base in Australia.

The new airline is expected to have startup costs of around $100m (ex aircraft, A$1.2bn incl. aircraft), employ 2,000 staff and generate significantly higher EBITDAR margins than Qantas in FY05/FY06.

Given the preliminary nature of the details released to date our current forecasts remain unchanged. If JetStar is as successful as Qantas hopes though, upgrades to FY05 and FY06 may be required.

The key risks at this stage appear to be Airbus potentially slipping on delivery times, the usual recruitment delays, potential union action and VBA attacking its cost base even further.

Either way, we believe Qantas is on track for a near record interim result and retain our market high forecasts. We also retain our BUY, High Risk rating on Qantas and our $4.40 target price.