As others have pointed, the MD is out here next week doing a roadshow, so expect a bit more detail to be revealed then.
But no, you're not missing anything, except -
- I'd expect cy18 revenues to be skewed toward H2. The business is signing up Paid Programmes now and for every one there is integration and testing before revenue flows. I've posted before why I think the 8-10x forecast for cy18 will be beaten.
- I'd also expect cy19 revenues to be 4-5x cy18, or $75-$110m, so you move significantly into cash positive. The business becomes enormously cash positive cy20+, as a further significant revenue uplift should be achieved.
- Costs should grow gradually while revenues grow exponentially. That's the beauty of monetization of a proprietary data asset. At 35% target market share x 17m moves that's 6m households moving to monetize and @$100 a pop average (allowing some more and some less) that's $600m of revenue, so there's a lot of headroom for revenue growth.
- The valuation now hinges not on the cy18 forecasts but on belief in the data asset and its potential to be monetized in future years. Much like the value of a mine depends on the orebody size and grade and not on the first year's production results.
UPD Price at posting:
$1.31 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held