ubs, page-9

""On any conceivable valuation metric, AFG is a strong buy"".... ? mmmm

what about on the metric that they have $6Bn in debt and only return < 10% on equity? what about the fact they have a load of planes and trains on order and will need to dramatically increase that debt to finance those in a rapidly deteriorating debt market? what about the fact that their entire company strategy off then offloading those assets into separate funds has evaporated since all of their funds have performed so poorly? and what about the fact that their directors are more interesting in ripping out cash from the company as fast as they can, and provide no guidance to shareholders?

lets face it, this company is as risky as they come, and only time will tell if its a strong buy or a strong sell at this point, but dont let current PE or even potential future profit growth fool you - AFG are taking risk to the extreme with their current strategy and are being appropriately priced by the market.

i hope for you guys that they pull it off, but if a company like Centro is having problems with financing, backed up by shopping malls, then what chance is AFG going to have to finance everything it has on order already....