Gold Turnaround Story of 2018, page-1025

Hi All,

As there has been a lot of posts on BLK and with a lot of those not relating to fundamental or technical analysis of BLK, I thought I'd dig up and throw together a bit of a summary of the FA & TA posted so far by all posters and I'll throw in some new bits.

--> You might want to make a cuppa and sit down for a bit of a (re)read!!



TA/charts:

Let's start with the easy/shorter bit as there hasn't been too many charts posted:

As posted by @Stockrocker:






As posted by @8horse:






As posted by me when it was at 4c:










FA/Fundamentals:

BLK achieved record monthly production results in January and then smashed those records in February (and March is looking very likely to smash February too):





And the nice infopgrahic from @jfer3 after the February results came out:





BLK is currently a cash-making machine and is making money almost as fast as Regal Funds Management (joke lol).

From Net Debt (Cash less Debt) of $20.6m in January:






To Net Debt (Cash less Debt) of $12.4m in February:






Drilling:
Apart from record Gold Production for the last couple of months, BLK are currently drilling and:
   - proving up their resources
   - adding more resources

Many targets over 55km's of strike.

Expect plenty of drilling news to start coming through shortly (they have $30m+ cash).

From today's drilling announcement:





And from previous announcements:













Peer Comparisons:

Some info and comparisons to other Goldies (thx to @8horse):

***

I've compiled ASX announcements into the following table and chart for comparison only.
There're many other factors to be considered as limited facts can be included in a table and chart.

As at today, BLK, is valued at A$18/oz for 6.5Moz JORC gold resource.
BLK: Cash and bullion of $31.4 million and secured debt of $43.8 million at 28 Feb 2018, net debt A$12.4m, reduced by $8.2m from the operating cash flow over last two months.

Recent production performance:
All in sustaining costs (AISC) reduced to A$912/oz in Feb 18, a 21% decrease on Jan’18 (A$1,158/oz)
New record monthly gold production in Feb 18 of 6,713oz (Jan’18: 6,498oz)

Stage 1: Free Milling Mine:
- Initial 3.5 years free milling mine to mine 250,000oz at AISC A$1,100 - A$1,200/oz, started January 2018.
- Free milling resource: 22.8Mt @1.76g/t, 1.3Moz to support future expansion

Stage 2: Medium Term Growth:
- Initial 9 year mine plan for 1.5Moz production (Most of DFS costs already spent)
- Capex: A$114m
- Annual production 207koz at AISC A$1,058/oz for first six years
- NPV8%: A$360m ; IRR 123%
- 6.5Moz JORC gold resource support expand of mine life

Resource Growth Potential:
- Large land holding of +1,100km2
- 55km of strike















***

I put up a quick comparison of RSG vs BLK:

If you want you can add in the BLK AISC at $1,150 for 2018 (average of forecast of $1,100-$1,200) even though a bit conservative since FEB was $912!

You can also add RSG's AISC for 2018 at $1,280 per their ann below.

Also looks like BLK is making about the same amount of money as RSG (gross profit - $30m per 6 months or $5m per month).

RSG market cap is $900m - BLK is at $92m.






I did a detailed analysis of BLK vs MOY which has provided the next/short-term target for BLK of 11c based off this comparison:

***
Closest peer to BLK is MOY based on both being in Australia, both being producers, and both currently producing a similar amount of gold.

My first, short-term target for BLK is 11c which will mean BLK having the same EV as MOY - that should surely be a given.


From there, we will see what additional value the market/Insto's will give BLK over MOY due to:

- BLK targeting/on track to produce at least 5koz-10koz more gold in 2018 than MOY (BLK 80-90Koz vs MOY 75-80Koz)
- BLK targeting production costs which are $140/oz lower than MOY (BLK $1,150/oz vs MOY $1,290/oz) (BLK actuals in JAN-FEB 2018 are $255/oz lower than MOY)
- BLK targeted expansion will produce more than twice as much gold per annum than MOY (BLK 207koz pa vs MOY 100koz pa)
- BLK targeted expansion AISC are likely to be much lower than MOY (BLK $1,058 vs MOY still to release theirs)


And once the market does give BLK that deserved valuation which is higher than MOY/higher than a 11c share price on BLK due to the above points; then we can see how much of an additional valuation the market will give BLK due to:

- BLK having a 5 times bigger Gold Resource (BLK 6.5Moz vs MOY 1.3Moz)
- BLK having a 6.5 times bigger Gold Reserve (BLK 1.2Moz vs MOY 186Koz)
- BLK being able to add more resources via exploration in the last 15 months than what MOY has in total (BLK added 1.4Moz, MOY has 1.3Moz total)
- BLK currently drilling and likely to add resources which are again likely to increase BLK's resources by more than what MOY has in total??





@jfer3 put together a nice infographic on BLK vs MOY:






I also shared my recent experience with SYA and the balls of steel required to ride the big life-changing ones, including through some red days, while waiting for the big announcement that's around the corner:







We covered off on the BLK deal with SO4 from last week which gave BLK an added 290km2 to its existing tenure of 1,110km2 (and 55km of strike).






Our nice and friendly neighbours (who are run by the Legend/Gun that is Ian Middlemas - if you've never heard of him some research will go nicely) will dewater the Williamson pit for us before we mine it!







The deal with SO4 points to a potential deal with someone else for BLK's Nickel/Cobalt assets (farmout, JV, Spin-Off like ARL):

***

That $15+ billion Nickel/Cobalt resource might get its own deal, farm-in or spin-out.

More on the Nickel/Cobalt as I posted a few weeks ago (https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/gold-turnaround-story-of-2018.4032121/page-8?post_id=31227043):

Current Nickel Laterite resource is:
- 80.5Mt at 0.77% Ni, 0.058% Co
- In-ground value of this resource alone is worth: $15B+.
- Resource extends over 19km and is 30m deep. <-------- this point is crazy: 30m deep resource
- Only limited drilling done - more drilling = bigger resource


There's also massive High-Grade Nickel Sulphide potential:
- Numerous targets generated
- 1m @ 6.38% Ni + 0.50% Cu + 0.11% Co
- 0.3m @ 6.64% Ni + 0.26%Cu + 0.09% Co


Nickel is all over the grounds and very close to their plant - plant is centrally located which means that everything is within 20km from the plant.






















And out of the big number of recent write-ups on BLK and its record performance, the favourite one:


















@Wheres-Wally please feel free to add some of your info/images and likewise for @8horse and anyone else.

Cheers,

GB.