MSB trading, page-565

Back of the envelope guesstimates... If anyone has better numbers, feel free to plug them in.

AGVHD


Epidemiology: 50,000 GVHD / year USA + EU5 + JAPAN

Assume this is 80% of market: 60,000

35% to 50% progess to AGVHD, 21,000 to 30,000

Assume 10% steroid refractory: 2,100 to 3,000

Assume 80% market penetration: 1,680 to 2,400


Assume treatment cost at USD 20,000 (per Temcell): 33,600,000 to 48,000,000

Assume 50% gross profit: 16,800,000 to 24,000,000


Assume P/E ratio of 10 to 1: 168,000,000 to 240,000,000

Assumed contribution to Market value USD / 475M shares: 0.37 to 0.51

Assumed contribution to Market value AUD at 0.75c: 0.49 to 0.67



CHF


Epidemiology: 400,000 CHF / year in USA

Assume USA is 25% of market: 1,600,000

Assume 10% market penetration: 160,000


Assume treatment cost at USD 10,000 (scaling): 1,600,000,000

Assume 50% gross profit: 800,000,000


Assume P/E ratio of 10 to 1: 8,000,000,000

Assumed contribution to Market value USD / 475M shares: 16.84

Assumed contribution to Market value AUD at 0.75c: 22.46