One of the bestest
catalysts for AGY is PA's
confirmation of producing COMMERCIAL amounts of BG LCE.
(the other is a OFF-take agreement for STAGE 3.)
I think we need to discuss this
as it's going to be coming VERY soon.
I've seen some posts on social media that are a little off to what's actually probably going to happen. It's important that ALL of the market has the correct
expectations.
I've seen numerous post out there that ppl. are expecting PA to have 150+ tons of LCE by March 31st.
(That's not happening, never was.)
Here's how I think it will unfold...
-I'm not sure exactly on timelines. Hopefully the company will update.
-At some point in the near future PA is going to take raw brine concentrate that has been stockpiled and put through the plant. I'd GUESS that he'll start with small amounts to adjust the system and get the chemistry correct.
-This is the wild card...it might take a day or day or 2 weeks.
-When PA get's to the 99.5%+ on sample amounts.
..he'll START real production.
-I believe he's started the testing part as AGY has put the word
Imminent...that production would start.
My guess...and this is MY guess that PA and Jerko...or PA has told Jerko that it will take 1 week. (it's all most a week now.) I honestly think it will take another week to "tweak" the process. Happy to be wrong here.
Do we want 99.4% or 99.7%...I'm happy to wait a bit longer for the latter.
Let's let PA do his thing.
Then it gets interesting...
PA then calls Jerko and says he's happy with everything and COMMERCIAL amounts of raw brine concentrate can start to be processed.
What's a commercial amount?
That's a good question and I think I have the answer.
@Audax77 over at ORE has done a amazing job tracking ORE's LCE shipments!
ORE's very first shipment in 2015 was 15 tons!
I also put a guess down before that AGY first batch of the 500 tons for the year would be 10-15 tons.
AGY has said that the Stage1 pilot plant can process 500 tons (expanded from 150 tons.)
So I'd figure the plant would have about
300+ days of running time through the year. Taking into account maintenance/cleaning etc.
So that gives PA's plant 1.5 to 1.7 tons per day to process BG LCE.
After after about 2 weeks...we'll have 15 tones in 1 ton Argosy bags.
**We should be able to get exact figures like ORE from Argentina Customs but someone here is going to have to put their hand up and volunteer to do that. Enjoy...http://www.afip.gov.ar/sitio/externos/default.asp
So we might go past March 31st a bit but, we'll know that LCE production has started way before then. Hopefully today.
So we won't be sending out 150 tons on March 31st but, I believe the above is close to what might happen.
I want to stress the above is JUST a guess.
I've picked up bits of info here and there over the past year and that's where my guess is coming from.
The exciting part is AGY will have real LCE revenue on our next qtrly, actually June Qtrly.
-This with the JORC and a 300M+ MC...
-2,000 tones S1 ponds are 1/3 done with the last 2/3 to be done in 4-6 months.
-All of Stage2 is paid for!
-No debt!
-S3 OT is next and could be a announced at anytime.
-The Enirgi/Rincon wildcard is now in play and a possibility.
there's nothing to stop FUNDS from buying AGY now!
IMO
DYOR!!
(20min delay)