New article about TRS, page-16

Interesting to see the muted response today.
I've been running some numbers on a P/E acquisition case, and think they can fairly readily get to a c30% IRR at a $10 acquisition price. I've pasted the details below, but essentially this is based on an initial debt raising to 3.5x EBITDA, fairly modest growth assumptions (particularly given the various DC/HK supply chain initiatives etc), $30m div in year 2, and an exit EV/EBITDA multiple of 7x. It should be remembered that the average EV/EBITDA of TRS in the 5 years 2011-2016 was 7.8x. I am massively overweight this stock but very tempted to buy more...

	Column 1	Column 2	Column 3	Column 4	Column 5	Column 6
0		2018	2019	2020	2020	2021
1	EBITDA	48	52	57	61	63
2	D&A	21	21	22	22	22
3	EBIT	27	31	35	39	40
4	Interest cost (@7%)		23	23	23	21
5	PBT	27	9	12	16	19
6	PE mgt fees		1.5	1.5	1.5	1.5
7	PBT adj	27	7	10	15	18
8	Tax	8	2	3	4	5
9	PAT	19	6	9	12	14
10
11	Funds from operations	27	31	34	36
12	Working capital		1	1	1	1
13	Capex		16	17	17	17
14	Dividends			30
15	Free cash flow		10.5	-17.4	15.7	18.0
16	Acquisition cost	-289
17	Debt (@3.5x)	167.6	157.2	174.6	158.9	140.9
18	Exit value					443.07
19	Private equity flows	-121.4		30		284.2
20	Share price at exit					15.33114
21	IRR	29%